Central Asia’s Multi-Vectored Foreign Policy: Lessons for Post-Soviet States

The leaders of five Central Asian nations recently met in Xi’an, China, for the first-ever C+C5 summit. The ‘Xi’an Declaration,’ which was adopted as a result of the meeting, highlighted the Belt and Road Initiative as a new launching point for China-Central Asian relations. The central Asian nations, on the other hand, have effectively carried out a multi-vectored foreign strategy, balancing their contacts with numerous regional and global powers.

The C+C5 summit is what?

China and the five Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are both represented by the abbreviation C+C5, which stands for China plus Central Asia.

The C+C5 summit’s goal is to improve ties and cooperation between China and these Central Asian nations.

The first C+C5 summit took place in Xi’an, China, and resulted in the signing of the ‘Xi’an Declaration,’ which outlines the shared vision and goals for China-Central Asia cooperation.

Complex Regional Dynamics of Central Asian countries

Geopolitical Competition: China’s growing influence in Central Asia can be seen as a challenge to Russia’s historical dominance in the region. This geopolitical competition between the two powers shapes the dynamics of China-Central Asia relations.

Multi-vector Engagements: Central Asian countries pursue multi-vectored foreign policies, engaging with various regional and international powers. This approach allows them to maintain balanced relations and leverage different partnerships to their advantage.

Regional Cooperation Organizations: Central Asian countries are members of various regional cooperation organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). These organizations influence the dynamics of regional interactions and shape cooperation initiatives.

Economic Interests: China’s economic investments and infrastructure projects in Central Asia, driven by the Belt and Road initiative, have both positive and complex implications for the region. Balancing economic benefits with potential dependencies and competition is crucial for the Central Asian countries.

Historical and Cultural Connections: Central Asia shares historical and cultural ties with both China and Russia. These historical connections influence the perceptions, interactions, and priorities of the countries involved, impacting regional dynamics.

Balancing Global Engagements: Central Asian countries navigate their relationships with major global powers, including the European Union, the United States, and regional actors such as Turkey. Balancing these engagements is necessary to safeguard their interests and maintain stability in the region.

Afghanistan’s Impact: The situation in Afghanistan has implications for regional dynamics in Central Asia. Stability and security concerns in Afghanistan directly affect neighboring countries and influence their interactions with external powers.

Significance of C+C5: Strengthening China-Central Asia Relations

‘Xi’an Declaration: The C+C5 summit held in Xi’an, China, served as a platform for leaders from China and the Central Asian countries to discuss and strengthen their bilateral relations. The summit resulted in the signing of the ‘Xi’an Declaration,’ which laid out a blueprint for future cooperation.

Belt and Road Cooperation: The summit focused on the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road initiative, emphasizing its role as a new starting point for China-Central Asia cooperation. The Belt and Road initiative aims to enhance connectivity and promote economic development through infrastructure projects.

Cultural Silk Road Program: The ‘Cultural Silk Road’ program was discussed during the summit, which aims to enhance cultural cooperation, preserve shared heritage, and promote cultural exchange between China and Central Asian countries.

China-Central Asia Summit Mechanism: The establishment of the China-Central Asia Summit mechanism during the summit paves the way for future biennial summits between the participating countries. This institutional framework ensures regular high-level engagement and facilitates ongoing cooperation.

Ensuring Stability and Peace on the Line of Actual Control (LAC)

There is a high possibility of an escalation due to the recent spike in tension along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between China and India. Both nations have made significant investments in military infrastructure and defence readiness close to the LAC. Due to the intricacy of the border dispute, a permanent resolution might not be possible right away, but there are practical steps that can be taken in the short term to lessen the likelihood of confrontation and promote peaceful cohabitation.

Deficiencies in Current Agreements

The agreements are predicated on the premise that both parties have a precise understanding and definition of the LAC. In actuality, there are substantial areas of the boundary where it is unclear or up for debate where the exact line is.

Insufficient Mechanisms for Dispute Resolution: The 1993 Agreement called for the creation of joint mechanisms to verify and settle LAC-related disputes. However, it took 19 years for the establishment of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) in 2012. While the WMCC meets twice a year, its effectiveness in resolving disputes and preventing escalations on the ground has been limited.

Limited Border Personnel Meeting (BPM) Points: The LAC, which stretches for 3,488 kilometers, currently has only four established BPM points. The 2005 Protocol proposed the establishment of a BPM point at Lipulekh, but it has not been implemented.

Lack of Progress in Force Reduction and Redeployment: The agreements, such as the 1993 Agreement and the 1996 Agreement, envisioned a mutually agreed reduction and redeployment of forces along the LAC. However, there has been little progress in implementing these provisions. The absence of substantial force reductions contributes to the prevailing tensions and increases the risk of confrontations.

The Need for Effective and Immediate Measures

Fragile and Dangerous Situation: As stated by India’s External Affairs Minister, the situation along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh remains fragile and dangerous from a military assessment perspective. The potential for escalation and the risk of conflict are significant.

Escalation of Aggression: Following the Galwan crisis, there has been a significant mobilization of Chinese forces into Tibet, accompanied by heightened rhetoric and jingoism from both countries.

Complexity of Border Dispute: The border dispute between India and China, encompassing areas such as Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin, is intricate and has deep historical and geopolitical roots. Achieving a permanent solution to the dispute may not be immediately feasible.

Uncertainty of War Outcomes: While there might be voices advocating for a more confrontational approach, it is essential to consider the potential outcomes of a full-fledged war. Despite assurances from the government, there is no guarantee that the results of such a conflict would be favorable to either India or China.

Proposed Steps for Peace and Stability

Conversion of LAC into a Line of Control (LC): Both India and China should delineate the LAC on maps and on the ground without prejudicing their respective border claims. This transformation would help reduce the urge among forward troops to make incremental advances and could be accomplished through mature dialogue and the use of technology.

Treatment of Disputed Areas as No Entry Zones or Joint Patrolling: The disputed areas along the LAC could be designated as no entry zones, preventing either side from establishing a permanent presence. Alternatively, both countries can explore the possibility of allowing mutually agreed-upon patrolling of these areas. Joint patrolling would help maintain the status quo and build confidence between the troops.

Strengthening Existing Confidence Building Measures (CBMs): The WMCC, established in 2012, should be empowered with more authority and resources to effectively address LAC-related disputes. Additionally, establishing more BPM points along the LAC would facilitate quicker resolution of local issues and enhance communication and cooperation between the Indian and Chinese troops

Deepfakes: A Double-Edged Sword in the Digital Age

Advanced deep learning techniques are used to create deepfakes, which control media by disseminating misleading information. These works of art alter reality, blur the distinction between truth and fiction, and present serious problems for society. Although deepfakes are a “upgrade” from conventional photo-editing, their capacity for deceit and manipulation should not be understated.

What does Deepfakes mean?

Specifically, generative adversarial networks (GANs), which are a type of deep learning algorithm, are used to make deepfakes, which are artificial media or manipulated information.

Deepfakes entail changing or substituting a person’s voice, appearance, or audio in a video, audio clip, or image to make it appear as though they are talking or acting in a way that they have never actually said or done. The term “deepfake” is a combination of “deep learning” and “fake.

Deepfake technology utilizes AI techniques to analyze and learn from large datasets of real audio and video footage of a person.

The Power of Deepfakes

Manipulate Media: Deepfakes can convincingly alter images, videos, and audio, allowing for the creation of highly realistic and deceptive content.

Blur Reality: Deepfakes can distort reality and create false narratives, blurring the lines between fact and fiction.

Transcend Human Skill: Deepfakes go beyond traditional methods of manipulation like photoshopping, utilizing advanced deep learning algorithms to process large amounts of data and generate realistic falsified media.

Produce Real-Time Content: Deepfakes can be generated in real-time, enabling the rapid creation and dissemination of manipulated content.

Reduce Imperfections: Compared to traditional manipulation techniques, deepfakes exhibit fewer imperfections, making them more difficult to detect and debunk.

Spread Misinformation: Deepfakes have the potential to spread misinformation on a large scale, influencing public opinion, and creating confusion.

Exploit Facial Recognition: Deepfakes can be used to manipulate facial recognition software, potentially bypassing security measures and compromising privacy.

Create Illicit Content: Deepfakes have been misused to generate non-consensual pornography (“revenge porn”) by superimposing someone’s face onto explicit material without their consent.

Influence Elections: Deepfakes can be employed to create videos that depict political figures engaging in inappropriate behavior, potentially swaying public opinion and impacting election outcomes.

Persist in Digital Space: Once released, deepfakes can continue to circulate online, leaving a lasting impact even after their falsehood is exposed.

Positive applications of deepfakes

Voice Restoration: Deep learning algorithms have been employed in initiatives like the ALS Association’s “voice cloning initiative.” These efforts aim to restore the voices of individuals affected by conditions such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, providing a means for them to communicate and regain their voice.

Entertainment and Creativity: Deepfakes have found applications in comedy, cinema, music, and gaming, enabling the recreation and reinterpretation of historical figures and events. Through deep learning techniques, experts have recreated the voices and/or visuals of renowned individuals

Visual Effects and Film Industry: Deepfakes have been utilized in the film industry to create realistic visual effects, allowing filmmakers to bring fictional characters to life or seamlessly integrate actors into different environments.

Historical and Cultural Preservation: Deepfakes can aid in preserving and understanding history by recreating historical figures or events. By using deep learning algorithms, experts can breathe life into archival footage or photographs, enabling a deeper understanding of the past and enhancing cultural preservation efforts.

Augmented Reality and Gaming: Deep learning techniques are employed to create immersive augmented reality experiences and enhance gaming graphics. By generating realistic visuals and interactions, deepfakes contribute to the advancement of these technologies, providing users with captivating and engaging virtual experiences.

Medical Training and Simulation: Deepfakes can be used in medical training and simulation scenarios to create lifelike virtual patients or simulate medical procedures. This allows healthcare professionals to gain valuable experience and enhance their skills in a controlled and safe environment.

The path to redemption regarding deepfakes

Regulatory Framework: Implementing comprehensive laws and regulations is necessary to govern the creation, distribution, and use of deepfakes. These regulations should address issues such as consent, privacy rights, intellectual property, and the consequences for malicious actors.

Punishing Malicious Actors: Establishing legal consequences for those who create and disseminate deepfakes with malicious intent is essential. This deterrence can discourage the misuse of this technology and protect individuals from the harmful effects of false and manipulated media.

Democratic Inputs: Including democratic input in shaping the future of deepfake technology is crucial. Involving diverse stakeholders, including experts, policymakers, and the public, can help establish guidelines, ethical frameworks, and standards that reflect societal values and interests.

Digital Literacy and Education: Promoting scientific, digital, and media literacy is essential for individuals to navigate the deepfake landscape effectively. By equipping people with the critical thinking skills necessary to identify and analyze manipulated media, they can become empowered consumers and contributors to a more informed society.

Responsible Technology Development: Technology companies must prioritize ethical considerations and societal implications when developing and deploying deepfake-related technologies. Instead of solely focusing on what can be done, they should also question what should be done, ensuring that deepfake technologies are aligned with ethical guidelines and serve the collective good.

International Collaboration: Encouraging international cooperation and collaboration can foster a unified approach to tackling the challenges posed by deepfakes. This can involve sharing best practices, establishing common standards, and creating platforms for knowledge exchange and coordination.

Fundamental Moral Rights: Recognizing the fundamental moral right to protect against the manipulation of hyper-realistic digital representations of individuals’ image and voice is crucial. Upholding and safeguarding these rights can provide a foundation for addressing the ethical implications of deepfakes and ensuring respect for individual autonomy and dignity.

Ethical AI Practices: Applying ethical principles to the development and deployment of artificial intelligence, including deepfake technologies, is essential. Companies should prioritize responsible AI practices, including transparency, accountability, fairness, and inclusivity, to mitigate the potential harm caused by deepfakes.

Global Organic Textile Standard (GOTS)

Collaboration between the European Space Agency (ESA), Global Organic Textile Standard (GOTS), and Marple (an AI company) aims to track cotton certification in India.

Utilizing satellite images and artificial intelligence, the project focuses on identifying and classifying cotton fields in India.

What is GOTS?

The Global Organic Textile Standard (GOTS) is a globally recognized standard for the processing and manufacturing of organic textiles.

It is a leading certification for organic fibers, including cotton, throughout the entire supply chain, from harvesting of raw materials to labeling of the final product.

GOTS ensures that organic textiles meet strict environmental and social criteria, providing credible assurance to consumers.

Key aspects of GOTS include:

Organic Fiber Criteria: GOTS requires that at least 95% of the fibers in a textile product must be certified organic. It prohibits the use of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and restricts the use of certain synthetic chemicals.

Environmental Criteria: GOTS sets strict environmental criteria for processing and manufacturing organic textiles. It includes guidelines for wastewater treatment, chemical inputs, and energy usage, promoting sustainability and minimizing the environmental impact.

Social Criteria: GOTS also encompasses social criteria, ensuring fair and safe working conditions for employees throughout the supply chain. It includes provisions for workers’ rights, prohibition of forced labor, and compliance with International Labor Organization (ILO) standards.

Supply Chain Traceability: GOTS requires full traceability of the supply chain, from the source of the organic fibres to the final product. This ensures transparency and integrity throughout the production process.

Labelling and Certification: GOTS-certified products are labelled accordingly, allowing consumers to identify and choose organic textiles with confidence. Certification is carried out by independent third-party organizations that assess compliance with GOTS standards.

What is the new program about?

ESA’s programme will train AI models to analyze ESA satellite data and identify cotton fields in India.

The project will help GOTS generate accurate estimates of organic cotton yields and incorporate standardized yield metrics.

The initiative aims to identify cotton fields meeting predetermined standards and support a seamless transition to organic cultivation.

Traditional and ecologically friendly farming practices will be encouraged.