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Russia Ukraine Conflict and Impact on India

Background on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

  • Ukraine attained independence in 1991, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
  • Ukraine was a member of the Soviet Union until 1991, when it disintegrated, and since then, Russia has attempted to keep Ukraine in its orbit.
  • In the eastern industrial heartland of Ukraine, Donetsk Basin, commonly known as, a separatist uprising began in 2014.
  • Due to its invasion and annexation of Crimea, Russia gained a nautical edge in the region.
  • As a result, both the United States and the European Union have promised to protect Ukraine’s borders.

 

What is the nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

  • The Ukraine issue is built on a competition over post-Cold War central European territoriality and the revival of a tarnished Russian past.
  • For hundreds of years, Ukraine and Russia have shared cultural, linguistic, and familial links.
  • The countries’ shared heritage is an emotional subject for many in Russia and ethnically Russian portions of Ukraine, and it has been utilised for electoral and military goals.
  • As part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the second-most powerful Soviet republic after Russia, and it was strategically, economically, and culturally vital.
  • The regional power balance, Ukraine’s role as a vital buffer between Russia and the West, Ukraine’s desire for NATO membership, and Russian interests in the Black Sea are all key causes of the ongoing conflict, all of which are followed by protests in Ukraine.

 

What is the current state of affairs?

  • The conflict is currently Europe’s largest state-on-state attack since World War II, and the first since the 1990s Balkan crisis.
  • Agreements such as the Minsk Protocols of 2014 and the Russia-NATO Act of 1997 are all but nullified as a result of the invasion of Ukraine.
  • The G7 nations sharply criticised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • Sanctions have been imposed by the United States, the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), Australia, Canada, and Japan.
  • China has refuted Russia’s claim that its actions are a “invasion” and has asked all parties to exhibit prudence.
  • India did not join the West in condemning Russia’s incursion in Crimea, and it kept a low profile on the subject.
  • New Delhi recently abstained on a UN Security Council resolution sponsored by the US that “strongly condemns” Russia’s “aggression” against Ukraine, claiming that conversation is the best way to resolve differences and issues and expressing “regret” that diplomacy was abandoned.
  • China and the United Arab Emirates both abstained.

 

What is Russia’s stance on the issue?

  • NATO’s expansion broke commitments made prior to the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Ukraine’s membership in NATO would cross Russia’s red lines, and NATO’s strategic stance continues to represent a security threat to Russia.
  • NATO’s expansion as a politico-military alliance, even after the demise of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, was a US endeavour aimed to temper European demands for strategic autonomy and resist Russia’s revival.
  • The Ukrainian crisis was justified by Russian President Vladimir Putin on the basis of national security and ethnic Russian rights in former Soviet states.
  • Russia is requesting assurances from the West that Ukraine will never be accepted to NATO. Kyiv is now classed as a “partner country,” meaning that it will eventually be allowed to join the military alliance.
  • The US and its western allies have refused to exclude Ukraine from NATO, stating that Ukraine is a sovereign country with the right to choose its own security alliances.

 

What impact would this conflict have on India?

  • Cooking gas, gasoline, and other fuels will become more expensive for Indian households and companies as a result of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Freight and transportation expenses rise when oil prices rise.
  • Depending on how long global oil prices remain high, the RBI’s credibility in producing inflation estimates could be questioned, and the government’s budget calculations, notably the fiscal deficit, could be thrown off.
  • India’s oil import costs will grow as crude oil prices rise, and gold imports may rise as well, putting pressure on the currency.
  • India’s petroleum product imports from Russia account for a small percentage of the country’s total oil import bill and can thus be replaced.
  • Alternative fertiliser and sunflower oil sources, on the other hand, may be more difficult to come by.
  • Although Russian exports make up less than 1% of total Indian exports, pharmaceutical and tea exports, as well as shipments to CIS nations, may face difficulties. Increases in freight charges may also reduce the competitiveness of overall exports.

 

Way forward:

  • Unlike during the Cold War, however, the global economy is today extremely intertwined. A prolonged conflict would have far-reaching effects, particularly in terms of the loss of life and suffering that is already occurring in Ukraine.
  • The world is still recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic, which has disproportionately affected the world’s poorest countries and people, and it cannot afford a conflict-induced halt.
  • It is up to Russia to impose a cease-fire and for both parties to return to the negotiating table after that. There is no way to escalate the situation.
  • Without condoning Russia’s method of “righting” perceived “wrongs,” the current crisis is a product of a faulty European security architecture.
  • A sustainable security order must reflect current reality; it cannot just be a continuation of the Cold War order, and it must be self-sustaining.
  • Furthermore, a European order that does not address Russia’s concerns through meaningful negotiation will be unsustainable in the long run.
  • A realistic solution to the issue is to restart the Minsk peace talks.
  • As a result, the West (the United States and other Western countries) should press both sides to resume discussions and follow through on their pledges under the Minsk accord in order to restore relative peace along the border.

 

India Specific Way Forward

 

Geopolitical Dimension:

  • India must prepare for certain immediate obstacles as a result of Russia’s actions.
  • It will have to strike a compromise between one key partner’s demand to denounce the violation of international law and another’s effort to appreciate its genuine concerns.
  • During the 2014 Crimea annexation crisis, India successfully controlled these challenges, and it will do so again.
  • On the fiscal side, the government must preemptively lower domestic gasoline taxes to nip inflationary expectations, stimulate lagging consumption levels, and prolong India’s fragile post-Covid-19 recovery through this global upheaval, notwithstanding the government’s conservative revenue forecasts in the Budget.
  • A Balanced Strategy: India-Russia connections have ensured that New Delhi is not completely shut out of discussions on Afghanistan and Central Asia, while also giving it some leverage with the United States.
  • At the same time, the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom are all essential partners for India, and the country’s ties with each of them, as well as with the Western world in general, are far more than the sum of their parts.
  • Delhi must maintain a regular conversation with all parties and engage with all of its allies, while remembering that there is no justification for infringing on a country’s territorial sovereignty.
  • India must also make it plain to coercive countries that their “with us or against us” rhetoric isn’t helpful.
  • Instead of splitting the world and reverting it to the Cold War era, all sides should take a step back and concentrate on preventing all-out war.

 

MCQs for practice:

 

  1. Which of the following countries do not share border with Black sea?
  2. Bulgaria
  3. Serbia
  4. Ukraine
  5. Georgia

 

Correct answer: B

 

  1. Arrange the following cities from East to west:
  2. Bishek
  3. Tashkent
  4. Moscow
  5. Kiev

 

Select the correct option:

  1. 2341
  2. 1234
  3. 2314
  4. 1324

 

Correct answer: B

City Country
Bishek Kyrgyzstan
Tashkent Uzbekistan
Moscow Russia
Kiev Ukraine

 

 

  1. Consider the following statements regarding Ukraine:
  2. Ukraine attained independence in 1991, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
  3. It is a member nation of NATO.
  4. It does not have nuclear weapons.

Select the correct statements:

  1. 1 only
  2. 1&2 only
  3. 1&3 only
  4. All of the above

 

Correct answer: C

  1. Ukraine attained independence in 1991, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
  2. It is not a member nation of NATO.
  3. It does not have nuclear weapons.